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OTTER's main component, ModCol, is a modified Colley Matrix. Colley's Matrix was made to offer a NCAA division I football ranking system, using a Laplace win percentage (1+wins/2+total games) and based only on strength of competition. Since point differential and home court advantage are much more important for the NBA, I've modified Colley's methods to account for these attributes. As was noted in the last article, strength of schedule is very important, especially among the weaker teams. OTTER does not seem to like bottom feeders, and I like this aspect of it. In other words which team would you fear more in the playoffs: the team that can't beat a winning team, or a team that will occasionally play up (or down) to their competition?

[All stats from games up to & including 12/24/06]

And so begins the descent of the Utah Jazz. As I spoke about last week on KnickerBlogger.Net, the Jazz have major issues with their defense.

Utah has been fabulous on offense, sporting the league's 2nd ranked defense behind efficient shooting (51.2% eFG 5th) and strong glasswork (32.6% oREB% 1st). However the Jazz have been merely 21st on defense. They're the worst team in the league in allowing opponents free points (33.0 FT/FG 30th), which should come to no surprise to those with Jerry Sloan posters on their walls. The Jazz have ranked no better than 25th in that category in the last 7 years, and have finished last or next to last in 5 of those seasons. Talk about the no-layup rule.

At the time I wrote the above, the Jazz had the West's 5th best expected win percentage, but they've slipped to 6th since then. (If you don't know about the pythagorean expected win formula, then go here.) Utah isn't going to self destruct and miss the playoffs ala the New York football Giants, but the Jazz really needs to address their defensive weakness.

Dallas has slipped into that second spot, and too bad they dropped their first 4 games. With the Suns right behind them, the NBA's top teams are the West's "Big Three." For everyone tired of seeing the Laker-Heat Christmas game again this year, consider the Mavs & Suns hook up in just 3 days! The NBA's marquee matchup could have easily been Nash vs. Dirk.

Oh and in case you didn't notice, the Pistons move into the top 5. For those that have hopes of a balanced Finals...

Since OTTER's last publication, Gilbert Arenas had a 60 point game, and a 54 point game. In that span Arenas averaged 27.6 shots per game, a good 5 more than his season average. The Wizards have moved up 10 spots because of the heavyweights they've beaten. Washington didn't play a single team ranked worse than 20th and took down Denver (13th), Miami (19th), Los Angeles Lakers (6th), Sacramento (16th), and Phoenix (3rd). The Wizards have the league's 2nd best offense now, but their defense is pitiful. Unless they can improve on the 29th ranked defense or Gilbert Arenas can pull a Wilt and average 50 ppg on the season, Washington is going to have a streaky season.

Cleveland just continues to disappoint due to the high hopes everyone had on LeBron in the preseason. Milwaukee has shown some improvement, but they have the league's worst defense. Is Bogut just the worst defensive center in the league? Denver will be one of the league's most watched teams due to the fight suspensions & the Iverson trade. Orlando coughs up more balls than the ASPCA's cat wing. Golden State holds the 8th playoff spot in the West, but would be in first place in the Atlantic division.

Miami ranks 19th & they moved up 2 spots since last time. Merry Christmas!

The entire Atlantic is in the bottom 10.

Published on Monday, December 25th, 2006 at 1:09 am